Ironman Expectations

I would be simply foolish to believe that I would be able to accurately predict how things are going to go this Sunday.  Even the pros can't necessarily predict their finish times with any degree of certainty.  A 140.6 mile race is just too long to forecast.  First, there are so many things that can happen, both good and bad that will impact a your overall time.  Second, little things can very easily compound and become big things.  Lastly, factors that are out of your control, such as temperatures, wind speeds, hills, etc, have exponentially larger impacts on race times due to the length of the race.  For instance, a slight head wind may only add seconds onto a finish time of a sprint triathlon, where in an Ironman, those seconds become minutes.

With that all stated, my #1 goal is simply to finish before the 17 hour cut off.  Simple as that - finish before 12:00am Sunday night/Monday morning.  I don't want to go and jinx myself now, but I am confident that is a realistic goal.  Now, simply going in to finish is all fine and dandy, but at the same time there needs to be some level of expectations, regardless that this is my first attempt at the Iron distance triathlon.  It doesn't help that I have no previous experiences to draw from.  The closest race I can draw from are my 4 previous half Ironman races.  But still, I finished those all in the area of 5 hours (+/- 15 minutes or so).  My PR at that distance is a 4:45.  A half Ironman is a 70.3 mile journey....which means there is still another 70.3 miles to cover....and that's no cake walk.  A simple thought is to just multiply your finish time by 2.  Duh - twice as far = twice as long, right?  That would give me a projected finish time of 9:30, wow, that would qualify me for Kona and put me in the top 20 overall.  There is no way that's going to happen.  So now what?  I have seen equations to multiply by 2 and add a 30 minutes.  That would put me at 10:00, still at the top of my age group.  I have also seen equations that say multiply your half Ironman time by 2.2, which had me at a 10:27.  So which is it???

You need to take those predictions with a grain of salt.  They do not take into consideration the course you raced your course on.  They do not take into consideration the course you are racing your full Ironman on.  They do not take into consideration your training.  I think those equations can give you some ideas of what you are capable of.  From there you can draw from your training as to what you are capable of.

Like I said above, my main goal, my #1 goal is to simply finish and that will remain my goal no matter what happens on Sunday.  My #2 goal is to finish under 12 hours.  My #3 goal, to finish under 11 hours.  My #4 goal, to finish under 10:45.  And my last goal, which is more of a dream goal, is to qualify for Kona.  Below is my break down for each leg of the race with my strategies for them.

2.4 Mile Swim - Projected Time 1:05-1:10

The swim course has changed from previous years from a double loop to a single 2.4 mile loop.  The swim is starts in deep water and is a mass start.  This means that all 2,500+ participants start together, in the open water, as opposed to waves of 50 starting every 1 minute or so from shore, as many triathlons start.  My thoughts are to get in the water by about 6:40-6:45am, depending on what the crowds do, and swim out to the ski ramp.  There are ski shows near the swim start during the summer months and they leave the giant ski jump ramp in the water.  The ramp is the outside portion of the start line.  I am planning on playing the start by ear depending on the crowds in the water and try to judge abilities of other swimmers and try to stick with people who I feel have similar abilities to try and draft off of.  Once the swim starts, there is little to describe.  My plans are to go out easy and never over exert myself in the water.  I want to use the swim as a warm up for the day.  The swim time is extremely minor compared to the remaining events.  You will never win a race (or meet your goals on the swim), but it is very easy to lose a race during the swim (or blow up your race plans).  If everything goes right, I should come out of the water just over 1 hour, hopefully under 1:10, but I will not get discouraged if I come out over that.  

Swim to Bike Transition - Projected time 0:10

After coming out of the water, I will utilize the wetsuit strippers to help remove my wetsuit.  I will then run to the Monona Terrace and proceed to run up 4 stories to the top of the parking ramp.  Instead of running up 4 flights of stairs, they have us run up the infamous helix style driveway to the top of the parking ramp to the male/female segregated transition areas.  The long distance to run to the transition area, on top of running in circle to the top story of the parking ramp have me over estimating my transition time of 10 minutes.  I will then grab my T1 gear bag, apply some chamois cream to my crotch, grab my helmet, cycling shoes, sunglasses and arm sleeves, apply a layer of sun screen and head out to grab my bike.

112 Mile Bike - Projected time 5:53

The bike course is a "lollipop" style course.  You head southwest out of Madison to Verona and proceed to complete two loops before heading back to Madison.  I have biked the loops a total of 3 times, completing a total of 5 laps.  I know the bike course like the back of my hand at this point.  I can nearly recite the roads by name turn by turn.  In all of my previous rides on the course I have averaged roughly 18.5-18.8 mph including stops at my vehicle to reload water and nutrition.  I feel confident that I will be able to ride the course, in its entirety at an average speed of 19 mph.  That would put my bike time at 5:53 and change.  Now, this is not taking in consideration any head winds, rain, or flat tires while on the course (knock on wood).  Yes, I did literally knock on my kitchen table.  My strategy is to go out easy, use the 16 mile ride to Verona as an opportunity to warm up my legs and get into a groove.  I will assess my legs, my body, and my mind on that ride to Verona, and settle in for a long day in the saddle.  I will ride the first loop easy, never stressing over my average speed.  I will repeatedly keep saying "Ride Strong, Ride Smart" to keep me on task.  I will not stress over getting passed and will not aim to pass other riders.  I will stay in my own little "bike bubble" and ride based on how I feel.  After completed the first loop, I will be half way done with the bike leg.  The second loop will be much of the same.  However, if I am still feeling great, I may kick it up a notch.  The course is extremely hilly and technical.  I will ride the downhills hard to build momentum to get up the next hill.  I will climb from in the saddle to preserve energy.  After completing the second loop, if my body is feeling up for it, I will give it all I got on the 16 mile trip back to Madison.  As I approach Madison, I will try to ride standing up to stretch out the legs and prepare them for running the Marathon portion of the race.

Bike to Run Transition - Projected Time 0:08

The bike to run transition is much like T1, up the helix to drop off the bike and change cloths and down the helix out to the marathon course.  I will not do to much during this transition, just change shoes, grab a hat, remove arm sleeves, reapply anti-chafe cream as needed and head out for the final leg of the race.

26.2 Mile Run - Projected Time 3:30

After exiting transition, I want to take it EASY for the first few miles.  I figure to take about 2-3 miles before settling into a pace to maintain for the rest of the race.  There are aid stations at just about every mile to assist me with any nutritional or hydration needs.  With knowing that, I will only be carrying a flask with Hammer Gel in it.  The run course is kind of confusing, it is essentially a double out and back run - 6 out, 6 back, done twice.  The nice thing about that it makes it very easy for spectators to see their athlete multiple times without much work.  It also mimics my training runs.  I would often run the same loop multiple times and see the same scenery over and over again.  The course is supposed to be mildly hilly with one hill of concern.  I have never been on the run course and will take it as it comes on race day.  If I need to walk up hills to preserve energy, then so be it.  I will survive and I will succeed.  I ran the Green Bay Marathon back in May in just over 3:10 and have a marathon PR of 3:03.  Based on my brick runs from training, I should be able to nail a 3:30 marathon coming off the bike.  But, you never know.  I have never run a marathon after swimming 2.4 miles and biking 112.  So many things can happen, I could actually feel better and run faster, I could feel like absolute shit and struggle through the 26.2 mile run, who knows!  I will take it easy and take short walking breaks every couple miles and reassess my legs, my mind, and my nutrition.  I will take the run, one step at a time and know that all I need to do is keep moving forward and I eventually will reach the finish line.

Projected Finish Time of 10:40-10:45

Based on my calculation I should be able to finish in under 11 hours.  If that were the case, I would be ecstatic!  It would be more than a success if that were to come true.  Just getting to the start line will be a success, knowing how many hours and how much effort I put into training for this race.  I will not be disappointed if I finish in over my projected time.  I am happy to able to race and to compete in the events I do.  Each race is an adventure and I know that Ironman Wisconsin will not be any different!